Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 85084.701828 89775.735825 94462.732868 99493.763325 104737.826611 110039.426340 115800.904600
2024-12-22 76620.912972 83752.471975 91075.793845 99147.751458 107784.658340 116738.447419 126711.823753
2024-12-29 71909.868357 80811.176959 90149.083296 100653.856026 112120.189798 124234.272286 137978.099790
2025-01-05 67951.446132 78168.448995 89080.347077 101565.965128 115420.200218 130285.058298 147402.745656
2025-01-12 64170.903507 75370.185005 87522.463833 101636.304955 117523.167696 134798.474817 154948.218346
2025-01-19 60803.359816 72781.355964 85967.220064 101488.828153 119185.841437 138659.898839 161632.879939
2025-01-26 59091.416493 71927.126005 86237.628467 103282.542912 122934.413430 144783.405236 170810.376493
2025-02-02 57573.541778 71180.211012 86529.772861 105011.762206 126539.637152 150700.238510 179736.630578
2025-02-09 55675.002162 69877.396781 86081.590293 105796.553556 128985.686844 155243.684794 187065.667703
2025-02-16 53435.936238 68064.215685 84940.130623 105680.906109 130307.860158 158434.284261 192794.969516
2025-02-23 51737.697828 66818.968731 84398.434072 106207.909698 132330.948128 162402.974068 199411.947033
2025-03-02 49893.912047 65319.072061 83482.516348 106223.890790 133694.989271 165561.568999 205058.100727
2025-03-09 48797.538765 64718.962885 83648.797658 107556.750625 136669.356055 170684.093015 213124.558770
2025-03-16 46895.345922 63054.958343 82464.447409 107202.674887 137579.251473 173337.466838 218261.956436
2025-03-23 46093.609871 62733.377503 82899.772275 108809.344229 140857.836979 178831.143853 226825.194351
2025-03-30 45038.977015 62047.149696 82845.639329 109781.014346 143340.786866 183361.858682 234243.333007
2025-04-06 43623.213390 60847.675801 82104.070991 109856.043810 144687.799766 186496.555361 239967.006352
2025-04-13 42179.820755 59563.238947 81210.605703 109699.092057 145713.527483 189217.447092 245178.568675
2025-04-20 41751.021497 59582.240170 81959.285114 111608.281446 149319.163462 195117.602422 254318.085374
2025-04-27 41319.222694 59576.124321 82660.386513 113448.436168 152840.130444 200928.601102 263381.798061
2025-05-04 40476.332781 58993.849129 82592.572869 114283.452671 155079.916373 205151.625091 270496.834851
2025-05-11 39268.018483 57884.540901 81805.713877 114160.408868 156078.167064 207813.593255 275669.819330
2025-05-18 38399.099657 57207.049811 81560.919649 114721.104752 157937.672294 211551.831840 282198.822097